Dive Brief:
- During the upcoming holiday season, retail sales are predicted to grow between 4.3% and 4.9% from a year prior, surpassing $1.7 trillion, according to a report from ICSC released Tuesday.
- Nearly eight in 10 (78%) of shoppers expect to spend the same or more as last year. While 83% of consumers said they can manage their essential expenses, almost half (49%) are worried about affording holiday gifts this year, and half said their personal or household debt will weigh on their holiday budgets, the survey of about 1,000 respondents found.
- Just over 60% of survey respondents said they will use AI tools and assistants during this holiday season, an increase from 47% a year prior. While the number of consumers using AI is increasing, 86% of consumers say they will do additional research before actually making a purchase.
Dive Insight:
While ICSC projects holiday spending to top $1 trillion — in line with other research — larger economic concerns loom over consumers heading into the season.
Nearly 70% of ICSC survey respondents said discounts, promotions and exclusive deals would encourage more in-store visits. Almost half (49%) expect to borrow money to pay for purchases they can’t pay for in full, and 47% said they may pause or reduce debt repayment, savings and retirement contributions to make their holiday purchases work, the survey found.
“Shoppers remain resilient, but they’re more discerning and value-conscious; competitive prices, convenient shopping options, and experiences that bring people together are non-negotiable for retailers to attract shoppers and give them reasons to return throughout the season,” Tom McGee, president and CEO of ICSC, said in a statement.
But even with constrained budgets, consumers are expected to spend. While nearly a third of U.S. consumers expect their holiday budgets to be bigger this year, many are expecting to spend more because things are more expensive, a recent report from Accenture found.
Shoppers are also taking advantage of holiday deals to save on essentials. During Cyber Week this year, clothing basics sales are forecast to surge at 210% from September 2026, followed by personal hygiene products (150%), baby products (113%), pet products (93%) and household cleaning products (49%), according to an Adobe report.
