Dive Brief:
- U.S. online sales for the 2026 holiday season, which runs between Nov. 1 and Dec. 31, are expected to grow 6.7% year over year to $275.1 billion, according to the latest data from Adobe.
- For Cyber Week, which is the five-day period between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday, online sales are expected to be up 7.4% year over year to $47.5 billion, with Cyber Monday projected to set a new U.S. e-commerce record and bring in more than $15 billion online in a single day, representing a 6.2% year-over-year uptick.
- Black Friday spending is growing more quickly than Cyber Monday, and is expected to be up 9.2% to $12.9 billion, representing the second-biggest single day of U.S. holiday spend. It will be buoyed by hefty discounts on big-ticket items including televisions and appliances, as well as apparel sales.
Dive Insight:
Traditionally, consumers have used holiday discounts to buy gifts, Adobe said. However, this year shoppers will be more likely to stock up on essentials as economic concerns push U.S. consumers to focus on value.
For Cyber Week, Adobe projected that online sales of personal hygiene products would grow 150% compared to average September 2026 sales levels, with clothing basics expected to be up by 210%. In addition, baby product sales will grow 113%, pet products will be up 93% and household cleaning sales will increase 49%.
That said, the overall main categories for shoppers this holiday season are expected to be electronics ($63.3 billion, up 5.9% year over year) and apparel ($51.3 billion, up 4.7% year over year). Online furniture sales are projected to grow 7.3% to $33.4 billion, while grocery, toys and cosmetics are projected to grow about 10% each year over year to $26.1 billion, $9.6 billion and $9.2 billion, respectively.
Average discounts are expected to be similar to 2025 levels across all categories.
Ahead of the holidays, October’s Prime Big Deal Days is shaping up to be a major pre-season shopping event. The two-day happening is forecast to bring in almost $10 billion online, and “has become an industrywide e-commerce moment, with discounts happening broadly across U.S. retailers,” per Adobe. Overall October online sales are projected to increase 8% year over year to $95.8 billion.
“[Prime Big Deal Days in October] has changed the shape of the holiday season, pushing U.S. retailers to manage promotions and inventory effectively to capture an additional pre-season spike in shopping interest,” Adobe said in its report.
Meanwhile, Thanksgiving Day sales are expected to be up 8.5% year over year to $6.9 billion, with a record 63% of online spending coming from mobile devices. That’s up from 61.6% in 2025, and also outpaces the overall projected mobile spend for the season (57.4%). Adobe attributed the increase in mobile purchasing to an uptick in impulse shopping.
Mobile spending is also driving online buy now, pay later financing, with 82% of BNPL spending coming through mobile versus desktop. Adobe said impulse shopping has also driven the adoption of this flexible financing method, and overall BNPL spend is projected to increase 6.6% year over year to $21.3 billion this holiday season. The biggest day for BNPL spending will be Cyber Monday, which is projected to hit $1.09 billion in online BNPL spending. This will be the second straight year BNPL has driven more than a billion dollars in sales for Cyber Monday.
Artificial intelligence will also play a major part in consumers’ discovery journey, with Adobe projecting that AI traffic to U.S. online retail sites this holiday season will increase 130% year over year.
Adobe cited a recent survey that found that 77% of respondents who used AI for online shopping said they felt “more confident in their purchase,” with another 69% reporting that they were less likely to return something they bought.
