Dive Brief:
- E-commerce growth is expected to outpace overall retail sales growth this holiday season for the period running from November 2026 through January 2027, according to a Thursday Deloitte forecast.
- Total holiday retail sales this season are forecast to grow between 4% and 4.8% year over year to a projected $1.7 trillion to $1.71 trillion, Deloitte said. That would surpass last year’s holiday sales, which grew 4.1% to $1.63 trillion between November 2025 and January 2026, seasonally adjusted and excluding automotive and gasoline, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
- Meanwhile, e-commerce is predicted to grow between 7.5% and 8.4% year over year to between $316.1 billion and $318.9 billion in the 2026 to 2027 holiday season, helped by “consumers’ ongoing use of digital tools to research, compare and complete purchases across all categories,” Akrur Barua, Deloitte Insights economist, said in a statement.
Dive Insight:
As artificial intelligence becomes a more embedded part of the shopping journey, e-commerce sales stand to benefit the most. A report last week from Bain & Company found that 24% of holiday shoppers plan to begin their discovery process via AI tools, including Google Gemini, ChatGPT and Claude. That represents a 17% uptick from 2025, Bain said.
Another factor impacting this year’s holiday forecast is the projected rise in disposable personal income, Deloitte’s Barua said.
“Disposable personal income (DPI) remains an important input to our holiday retail forecast,” he added. “We project DPI to grow between 4.5% to 5.2% during the holiday season, which we believe to be a strong predictor of retail and e-commerce sales.”
Despite the projected increase in disposable income, Deloitte’s forecast also considers consumers’ search for value, especially when it comes to seasonal promotions.
“Consumers continue to place importance on making the holidays special for their friends and families, while also making deliberate choices about how they spend,” Natalie Martini, vice chair at Deloitte and U.S. retail and consumer products leader, said in a statement. “As they look to get more out of their dollars, we continue to see value-seeking behaviors across income levels, including switching among brands and retailers and using promotions to manage spending. These behaviors are expected to shape how consumers approach holiday shopping this season.”
A strong holiday season could be especially validating for the retailers that decided to stock up early this year in order to get out in front of potential late July tariff changes and other supply chain challenges.
