Dive Brief:
- Store openings slowed last year, according to a Thursday report from Telsey Advisory Group. Net retail openings in fiscal year 2025, excluding restaurants, are expected to have grown 0.7%, a slower rate than both 2023 and 2024.
- Openings for 2026 are projected to accelerate, increasing 1.4% year over year, led by beauty, off-price and discount retailers, per the report.
- Tariffs and broader macroeconomic uncertainty have caused some retailers to be more cautious, with many revising their capital expenditure guidance to be lower in fiscal year 2025 and reducing or postponing store remodels.
Dive Insight:
Retail openings and closure expectations for 2026 vary across category, according to Telsey Advisory Group’s new report.
Net closings for 2026 are expected in both the luxury and department store sectors. Meanwhile, store count at home retailers is projected to grow 1.4% year over year, though the biggest increases will come in off-price, beauty and apparel.
The analysts anticipate Best Buy will have fewer stores in both 2025 and 2026 because of its focus on existing store refreshes. Additionally, Target and Walmart are projected to have grown their footprints in 2025, as they “work to build a digital ecosystem and complete remodels to gain a greater share of wallet,” the report added.
Retail bankruptcies are also opening up prime real estate for the competition, according to Telsey Advisory Group.
“These new bankruptcies present opportunities for surviving retailers to acquire additional retail space, enabling off-price and beauty retailers to expand their presence and enter new markets with favorable locations and terms they may not be able to secure otherwise,” the analysts, led by Dana Telsey, said in the report. “In fact, these locations have competitive interest from a number of retailers and demand has remained high given overall limited supply.”
2026 already includes a major bankruptcy announcement, with Saks Global filing for bankruptcy protection earlier this month. Telsey analysts noted they tracked 10 retail-related bankruptcies for 2025.
Among the 2025 retailers who filed for bankruptcy is the owner of Value City Furniture and American Signature Furniture, which is now set to shutter all of its remaining stores. Additionally, Claire’s, At Home and Rite Aid all filed during the year.
