Dive Brief:
- Back-to-school spending is expected to stay flat this year as parents of K-12 students look for value and approach the season with a mixture of caution and intention, according to a new 2026 survey from Deloitte. Parents are expected to spend $557 per child, down $13 year over year, or down 6% when adjusted for inflation.
- In-store shoppers are expected to spend less ($521) and online shoppers are expected to spend more ($614). The most popular destination will be mass merchants, which account for 80% of all planned spending, followed by online stores, warehouse membership clubs and department stores, with “value for the money” being the biggest factor everywhere.
- Meanwhile, 57% of consumers said they expected the economy to get worse in the coming months, marking the highest percentage since 2020. Parents are also planning to push their purchases closer to the beginning of the school year, with Deloitte predicting that spending would peak in late July and early August, marking a return to pre-pandemic trends.
Dive Insight:
Economic uncertainty and higher prices will be top of mind for parents as they enter the 2026 school year, according to Deloitte’s annual back-to-school survey, which tallied responses from more than 1,200 parents. The report estimated the overall back-to-school market at $30.4 billion.
“While many parents are willing to do all they can to help set their children up for success, financial concerns are leading them to sharpen their budgets,” Natalie Martini, vice chair and U.S. retail and consumer products sector leader at Deloitte, said in a statement. “Cautious spending behavior exists across income groups, but value-seekers demonstrate that it’s not always about the cost — some consumers are willing to spend if they find value in the purchase. At the same time, there’s often a sense of nostalgia about back-to-school that can impact how and when parents spend. Retailers who lean into these dynamics may be more likely to see success throughout the season.”
While respondents said they planned to spend 22% more on clothing and accessories — an average of $323 per child — that was also the leading category parents said they would cut due to budgetary constraints. On the other hand, tech spending is expected to drop 16% to an average of $417 per child, which Deloitte said might result in parents declining to upgrade devices.
Spending trends differ by demographic. Lower-income and middle-income parents expect to spend 10% and 12% more, respectively, due to higher prices. Upper-middle-income parents and higher-income parents plan to spend 9% and 20% less, respectively, because of financial concerns.
In order to afford back-to-school expenses, 50% of respondents said they’d reduce spending elsewhere, such as on dining and entertainment. Nonetheless, 59% said their children were frequently able to convince them to spend more, although that number is down slightly from the 62% who said that in 2025. Another 45% said their child specifically requested a must-have item for back-to-school, with 57% saying children influenced them to spend more on that item.
Affordability is also important, with 71% of respondents saying they’d switch brands if the brand they wanted was too expensive, and 60% saying they planned to shop at more affordable retailers. Another 51% said they expected to shop for private label products instead of name brands, and one quarter said they planned to use cashback websites. Notably, parents who use “a broader set of digital tools in their shopping journey” consistently plan to spend over $100 more, on average, than those who do not, per the survey. Parents who use generative AI are expected to have the highest spend per child spend, at $737.
“We see parents approach back-to-school shopping with intent,” Brian McCarthy, principal and retail strategy leader at Deloitte, said in a statement. “They tend to be more thoughtful about their spending and value-seeking strategies to help maximize their wallets. Additionally, those who actively use multiple digital tools to research products tend to be more engaged shoppers overall. GenAI users, for example, may spend more time comparing products and filling their carts with more purchases, which can create a further benefit for retailers to lean into the technology.”
