If you think peak season performance is determined in November or December, you’re already late to the game. By the time year-end volume surges hit, many outcomes are already locked in. The organizations that approach the busiest months with the most confidence are those that used the first half of the year to test, learn and realign their operations while the stakes are still low.
This distinction matters now more than ever. More than half of retail and brand supply chain executives surveyed by GXO and Retail Dive’s Studio ahead of the 2025 holiday rush expected stability, yet fewer than one in five (19%) said they were very confident in their ability to flex operations when demand swings. That disconnect signals a real vulnerability in preparedness.
In many cases, confidence is undermined by insufficient early-year testing. As retailers and brands process the final wave of holiday returns, it can be tempting to pause before ramping up again. But top performers take the opposite approach. They use the first months of the year to test core operations, validate technology and strengthen partnerships, positioning themselves for stronger execution later in the year.
Using the first half of the year to pressure-test operations
One of the most effective ways to prepare for high-volume periods is to expose operational weaknesses early, while there’s still time to address them. Running early-year promotions, pilots and simulations reveals the pressure points that tend to surface when demand accelerates.
Operational stress often shows up as staffing gaps, inventory shortages, system strain, fulfillment bottlenecks and transportation delays. Shifts in consumer demand, promotional timing and carrier constraints are often what trigger that pressure.
Seasonal moments such as Valentine’s Day, Mother’s Day and other mid-year demand spikes offer practical opportunities to test these variables under real conditions. Each event provides a chance to validate forecasting assumptions, assess labor readiness and observe how inventory flows across nodes and channels when volumes increase.
Using these moments to test, pilot and refine operations builds confidence before demand reaches its highest levels. Rather than hoping plans hold under pressure organizations can enter the back half of the year knowing adjustments have already been made and their operations are ready to flex.
Leaving time for technology experimentation
Even though many surveyed leaders reported deploying automation, real-time inventory visibility platforms and AI-driven forecasting tools to support last year’s peak season, only about a third said they were very satisfied with the return on those investments.
Rolling out new systems during periods of intense demand carries real risks, which makes technology another area where earlier testing clearly pays off. Piloting new tools under abnormal order volumes and atypical buying behavior produces distorted data, limits the ability to refine configurations and increases the likelihood of disruption. That’s why many brands, retailers and third-party logistics (3PL) providers pause new technology deployments during the peak season.
That doesn’t mean realistic testing is off the table. Early-year pilots give teams time to validate ROI assumptions, uncover integration issues and properly train users. This window is especially critical for AI-powered tools, which rely on sustained data inputs to learn patterns, improve accuracy and deliver useful insights that operations teams can trust.
Moving from reactive responses to coordinated execution
Early testing surfaces another common vulnerability for ecommerce and retail brands: decision-making silos. While more than three-quarters (77%) of executives surveyed consider their organizations fairly agile across functions, such as supply chain, marketing and customer experience, only a minority describe themselves as extremely agile and collaborative.
The impact becomes clear as volumes rise. Promotions outperform expectations, forecasts shift across channels and fulfillment constraints create bottlenecks. When teams have not practiced responding to demand fluctuations together, individual functions (marketing, customer service, etc.) and logistics partners are forced into reactive mode, compensating for decisions made elsewhere in the organization.
Q1 and Q2 pilots help close this disconnect by forcing alignment earlier. Teams learn to align marketing calendars with fulfillment capacity and inventory availability before pressure mounts. With consistent communication and shared planning, agility becomes operational rather than theoretical. Labor can scale with demand, promotions can be adjusted in near real-time and inventory decisions can be evaluated based on their downstream impact on the customer experience.
This level of collaboration also explains why the most effective 3PL partnerships are not transactional or seasonal. Strong partnerships are built around shared planning cycles and early coordination. When core functions align well in advance organizations move faster and make better decisions as demand inevitably shifts.
Winning peak is all about preparation
Supply chain volatility isn’t going away, even as end-of-year demand patterns appear more predictable on paper. The strongest performers during the holidays aren’t eliminating uncertainty. They're preparing for it earlier and more deliberately.
Organizations that use the first half of the year to challenge assumptions and refine how their operations work enter high‑pressure periods with far greater confidence in their ability to flex and scale. Early experimentation isn’t just a hallmark of resilient retail supply chains. It’s what allows leading brands to translate preparation into a lasting competitive advantage.
