For most of the past decade, the central logistics question for an e-commerce operations chief was straightforward: which of the major carriers gets the volume? In 2026, the calculus has changed. Rising transportation costs, new volumetric pricing formulas, tariff uncertainty and unforgiving consumer expectations are pushing retailers to spread parcels across more networks—and to look in places they once overlooked, including the belly-hold capacity of passenger jets.
The move away from single-carrier dependence is now measurable. Before the pandemic, UPS, FedEx and the U.S. Postal Service together handled roughly 85% of domestic parcel volume. By 2025 that share had slipped to about 61% of the 23.9 billion deliveries made in the U.S., according to analysts convened by trade publication Logistics Management. Regional carriers, delivery start-ups and retailer-built networks absorbed the difference, particularly on lighter packages and shorter routes. The fragmentation looks set to continue smaller and regional carriers grew sharply in combined parcel volume during 2025, and U.S. parcel volume is projected to reach 30.5 billion shipments by 2030, according to multi-carrier shipping platform ShippyPro.
Underpinning the reshuffle is an online market still outgrowing physical retail. Global e-commerce is on track to surpass $8 trillion in 2026, and cross-border sales are forecast to expand roughly twice as fast as the broader sector through 2030—about 26% versus 13%—reaching $5.6 trillion, according to figures cited by FedEx. Many brands now expect international markets to account for 20% to 30% of online revenue within five years. That trajectory is exactly what strains delivery models built for a slower, more domestic era.
Three priorities are driving the rethink. The first is carrier diversification itself: rather than route every order through one provider, retailers are assembling portfolios of networks and service levels to cut risk and protect coverage when demand spikes. The second is cost predictability. Shipping is among the largest and least-controlled line items in e-commerce, and zone-based rates, residential surcharges and accessorial fees make forecasting difficult; brands increasingly favor transparent, all-in pricing. The third is speed paired with visibility. Consumers expect fast delivery wherever they live, and they expect to watch the parcel move—and retailers want that same data to manage exceptions before they become complaints.
Those demands explain why airline-powered logistics has moved from novelty to strategy. By loading parcels onto existing flights, airlines can convert idle cargo capacity into a delivery network with national or global reach without the capital cost of building one from scratch. Two services running on technology from Cambridge, Mass.-based SmartKargo illustrate the two ends of the model.
On the domestic side, DeliverDirect by Delta Air Lines, powered by SmartKargo, is an airline-run small-parcel network aimed at e-commerce brands seeking faster, more predictable shipping. It draws on Delta's more than 2,500 daily flights to move packages across the country with end-to-end tracking, and it prices without zones, residential surcharges or accessorial fees—an attempt to give merchants the cost transparency they have struggled to obtain from legacy carriers.
For cross-border shipments, IAG Cargo's deliver-e, also enabled by SmartKargo, applies the same logic internationally. Launched for cross-border shippers, the service utilizes the IAG network which includes: British Airways, Iberia, Aer Lingus, Vueling and LEVEL into a single parcel network reaching more than 250 destinations on upward of 12,000 weekly flights. deliver-e handles first-mile collection, pre-files customs documentation digitally and uses vetted last-mile partners to land parcels in three to six days on major routes—against the seven-to-14-day windows common in traditional cross-border flows.
The common thread is that transportation is no longer treated purely as a cost center. Reliable delivery, clear communication and predictable pricing increasingly shape whether a shopper buys—and whether they return. For the airlines, those same parcels represent a new revenue stream from capacity that would otherwise fly empty.
None of this signals the end of the incumbents, which still dominate heavy and long-zone freight and are adjusting their own pricing to defend lighter-weight lanes. But the direction is clear. As e-commerce growth continues and more of it crosses borders, retailers that diversify their delivery networks—and tap unconventional capacity such as airline cargo—appear better positioned to keep their promises to customers while keeping control of their costs.
Sources
- Logistics Management, 2026 Parcel Express Roundtable — decline in the legacy carriers' share of domestic parcel volume.
- ShippyPro, Carrier Diversification: Multi-Carrier Shipping in 2026 — growth of regional carriers and U.S. parcel-volume projection to 2030.
- FedEx, Growth opportunities in cross-border e-commerce — e-commerce and cross-border growth forecasts to 2030.
- IAG Cargo, press release: IAG Cargo introduces deliver-e — service detail and executive comment.
