Dive Brief:
- Back-to-school shoppers are focusing on essentials like school supplies and technology for the first day of school and planning to spread out apparel shopping throughout the year, according to Circana.
- The company’s Future of Apparel forecast studied point-of-sale data across wholesale and vertical specialty retailers and found that kids’ apparel dollar sales are expected to decline 1% to 2% in Q3, mainly due to a 3% decline in unit demand. Circana said the disparity between sales and demand suggests that consumers are buying less and spending more per item.
- Consumers are concerned about overall costs, per a recent Circana omnibus survey, which found that 57% said they were “at least somewhat concerned” about how prices would impact their back-to-school clothing and footwear budgets this year. Almost a quarter (24%) said they were “very concerned.”
Dive Insight:
Back-to-school is still on the calendar, but Circana said apparel shopping will be a season-long event rather than “a full wardrobe refresh” before Labor Day.
“After all, nobody needs eight new outfits in their closet to walk through the door on the first day of school,” the report said, adding that many of the biggest apparel opportunities come after school starts. “A pressed shirt for picture day, a homecoming outfit, new apparel for cooler weather sports, or a dress for a school concert,” Circana said. “These aren’t bulk purchases driven by the traditional retail calendar. They’re driven by specific occasions and happen on consumers’ own timeline, when the need arises.”
According to the research, two-thirds of apparel shoppers buy occasion clothing “no more than a month before the event,” with 38% shopping the week of the occasion.
However, sporting supplies are a growing priority for families, per the Consumer Pulse Back-to-School 2026 survey from KPMG. That report found that seven out of 10 families expect sports participation this school year, with outdoor sports accounting for the largest share of 43% of school-related activities. Soccer is the most popular sport (47%), followed by baseball and softball (39%).
“Sports have become essential spending for American families. It’s tied to a family’s routine, which makes it more resilient as consumers make tradeoffs elsewhere in the back-to-school budget,” Duleep Rodrigo, KPMG U.S. consumer, retail and hospitality leader, said in a statement. “These aren’t one-off purchases, either. If a brand can deliver, it can become the default stop for the outgrown cleats, the new jersey, and the gear that gets replaced every season.”
The clothing and apparel category, at $26 billion as of last month, is significantly larger than the combined sporting goods, hobby and bookstores category, which sits at $9 billion, but the apparel sector is growing at a much slower pace, according to data from the U.S. Department of Commerce.
As parents look for ways to trim spending this year, Omnisend reported that 45% of families are planning to use buy now, pay later financing, while Deloitte reported that 80% are planning to do their back-to-school shopping at mass merchants.
Meanwhile, overall back-to-school spending is expected to reach record highs, according to research from the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics.
