Dive Brief:
- Shoppers are forecast to spend a record $43.3 billion on K-12 students this year, up from $39.4 billion in 2025. Meanwhile, back-to-school shopping for college students is expected to reach $103.5 billion, exceeding $100 billion for the first time, according to an annual survey by the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics.
- Nearly two-thirds (62%) of consumers had already started back-to-school shopping by early July, down from 67% the year prior.
- Many consumers are delaying purchases until later in the season or spreading out shopping to manage their budgets, per the report.
Dive Insight:
In response to price-sensitive consumers’ concerns, retailers have introduced back-to-school deals well before classes begin this fall.
In June, Target debuted back-to-school offers and refreshed more than half of that inventory with new apparel, dorm decor, school supplies and other products. Earlier this month, Kohl’s promoted its own back-to-school discounts, with “thousands of products” priced below $25. This week, Walmart marked down select items to 25 cents and reduced prices on its 14 most popular school supplies to their “lowest prices since 2019.”
So far, retailers’ early sales have attracted consumers’ attention. Over half (54%) of respondents to the NRF’s survey said they bought their school supplies during sales such as Target Circle Deal Days, Walmart Deals and Amazon’s Prime Day.
“Affordability is a concern for families and a top priority for retailers as we enter the back-to-school season,” NRF Chief Economist and Executive Director of Research Mark Mathews said in a statement. “Shoppers are keeping value front and center as they look for ways to make their dollars go further. Retailers are responding with a strong assortment of products, promotional events and more convenient shopping options, helping families find what they need while saving time and money.”
Shoppers are on the hunt for back-to-school bargains. Around half (46%) of consumers who haven’t done much of their back-to-school shopping yet are waiting for better deals, the NRF survey found. In a separate report released earlier this month, the NRF found that 78% of consumers anticipated higher prices on back-to-school items this year.
Spending for K–12 students is being allocated toward shoes, school supplies and electronics sales, while electronics is the top spending category for college students, the NRF report notes.
Earlier this month Deloitte forecast that back-to-school spending would stay flat this year, as parents of K-12 students look for value. In that report, 57% of consumers said they anticipate the economy worsening in the coming months, marking the highest percentage since 2020.
