"Learning to choose is hard. Learning to choose well is harder. And learning to choose well in a world of unlimited possibilities is harder still." – Barry Schwartz (The Paradox of Choice). Today, that world of unlimited possibilities may be shrinking soon enough. But is this exactly what consumers and brands needed all along?

For decades, the American shopping experience has been defined by abundance—endless SKUs, overnight shipping, and menus (literal and figurative) that sprawl like novellas. For example, egg rolls with your spaghetti and the Cheesecake Factory menu as a national metaphor. Why are there so many candles or 47 versions of the same dish soap? The market has always obliged because the American dream runs on a “32 flavors and then some” philosophy. But do more options create more freedom, or do they create more anxiety, paralysis, and obvious overhead?

In 2025, that model is cracking. Political and environmental pressures are rewriting the rules. Across fashion, beauty, hospitality, and consumer goods, the all-you-can-eat buffet is closing—or at least adjusting its hours. Tariffs, inflation, labor shortages, and supply chain volatility are forcing brands to do what consumer psychologists have been urging for years. To cut the noise. The outcome? Fewer SKUs, leaner assortments, tighter edits. It seems variety will no longer be the brag or flex it once was, but more of a burden turned liability. Is this the retail equivalent of cleaning out your closet after a breakup? Spoiler alert…you suddenly see how much of it you never really needed, wanted or liked in the first place.

Prediction 1: Tariffs Will Pull Shoppers Out of the Cycle of Overconsumption and Impulse

The latest CPI release in July shows U.S. apparel prices continuing to climb up 0.4% month-on-month after a spring lull, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Further recent data shows apparel prices in the U.S. ticking up significantly, with core handbags jumping as much as 12% over the past three months, according to Vogue Business. Steve Lamar, CEO of the American Apparel and Footwear Association, says these costs are "already moving through supply chains" and will "increasingly be passed on to consumers" as the year progresses.

According to the Washington Post, the average household is expected to pay an extra $2,400 annually under new tariffs, with apparel and leather goods spiking nearly 40%. That's the kind of sticker shock that makes impulse buying impossible to ignore.

Affluent Gen Z and millennial shoppers are still spending for now, shrugging off price hikes on brands like Birkenstock, Coach, and Bugaboo. But early signs of selectivity suggest this resilience may not last. This hints at a slow recalibration rather than an immediate collapse in overconsumption.

Brick-and-mortar, especially department stores, once gained loyalty when they felt curated, edited, and like a place where you could actually discover the must-haves of the moment. You weren't just buying a product; you were being let in on something. Now, most floors are bursting at the seams with SKUs. The racks feel like stock, not like something specially chosen or worth the trip, let alone your money.

What does that mean in real life? More shoppers pausing before they buy. The dopamine hit of fast, cheap trends loses its edge when the price creeps high enough to make you think twice. We're already seeing the early signs. Resale platforms are booming, and women under 40 are buying fewer items but spending more per piece. They are choosing quality, versatility, and longevity over disposable novelty. It's a reset that feels a lot like the post–Great Recession "lipstick effect," only now the indulgence is a perfectly cut blazer you'll wear for a decade instead of a $28 impulse dress that unravels in the wash.

Furthermore, are we about to see the death of the "everything store" model? Will even Amazon have to curate more intentionally? And what happens to consumer identity when you can't define yourself through endless micro-choices? IIs this actually better for shoppers? Less decision fatigue and more thoughtful purchases will surely build stronger brand relationships. But the question remains whether Americans will feel deprived or liberated?

Prediction 2: Expect Fewer SKUs, More “Core + Collabs”

Brands are being forced to simplify, but that doesn't have to mean boring. In fact, this shift could push the market toward more thoughtful curation. Think of it as the rise of intentional inventory: a dependable backbone of core products, with well-timed, high-impact collaborations to spark demand.

A few years ago, Procter & Gamble cut its Head & Shoulders lineup from 26 to 15 varieties and saw sales go up. The same psychology applies here as less choice can actually boost attachment and conversion. Beauty is undergoing the same contraction. Glossier and Morphe have trimmed assortments, and Sephora is leaning into edited “core” products instead of seemingly endless lip gloss shades.

In apparel, this might mean collapsing colorways and size runs. Maybe ten shades collapse to three, fifteen size options shrink to five. Reuters notes that U.S. apparel imports from China hit a 22-year low in May after tariffs spiked. That's forcing brands to rethink not only where they source but how much they make. That's not a slow trend correction—it's tariffs actively forcing brands to collapse assortments. Tapestry, parent of Coach and Kate Spade, reported an 8% sales increase last quarter but warned tariffs could strip $160 million from its profits this year.

The same logic applies across categories. Walk into a suburban supermarket lately and it's unhinged, bordering on parody—orange-flavored Coke, purple ketchup, 47 versions of the same cereal. By contrast, Aldi, Trader Joe’s, and small groceries in big cities or mountain towns thrive on tight edits and limited choice, proving shoppers adapt quickly when the options are curated.

Since 2020, 60% of U.S. restaurants have permanently reduced menu size, according to the National Restaurant Association. In-N-Out thrives with four menu items while sprawling chains struggle with 100+. Even hotels now clean rooms every few days, and even the pickiest travelers have adjusted. Will tariffs speed up a correction that was overdue across all retail? If diners and travelers can live with less, so can shoppers.

There's a lesson here for fashion and retail: edit with intention. The best department stores of the past didn't overwhelm—they taught you what mattered. That level of clarity might be where the market is headed again. For shoppers, it's a little like walking into your favorite coffee shop and finding just three drinks on the menu—and realizing you actually like the clarity.

Tech may be next. Best Buy just posted strong earnings but warned that tariffs could shrink assortments on electronics, where shoppers already face overwhelming walls of TVs, laptops, and charging cables.

Prediction 3: More Brands Will Create Their Own Marketplaces

As selling through traditional wholesale channels becomes less profitable under current trade policy, we'll see more brands building owned platforms, digital marketplaces that give them more control over pricing, distribution, and community. This isn't just a defensive play. It's a way to pull customers into an ecosystem where loyalty is built through direct connection, not mediated by a retailer's shelf space or algorithm.

Direct-to-consumer isn't new and it's not just the Nike and Apple playbook. Brands like Reformation, Everlane, and Glossier were making bold moves more than a decade ago, proving you could bypass traditional retail and still build a cult following. The difference now is that tariffs are accelerating the need for this control, pushing the strategy beyond disruptors and into the mainstream. And beginning August 29, the de minimis loophole closes. This means even sub-$800 impulse buys from Shein or Temu will get hit with tariffs. That alone pushes brands to rethink how and where they sell.

There's also a potential upside for smaller players. When there are fewer options overall, do smaller brands actually get a better shot? In some ways, yes. The "everything for everyone" model is becoming untenable when you can't predict what those "everythings" will cost to produce. The DoughBed example from the New York Times is a perfect metaphor: founder Fabian had to raise prices 30%, delay his launch by months, and may cancel future SKUs entirely due to tariff unpredictability. Small businesses are learning they can't survive by offering 15 colors of every product.

What This Means for Brands

Surviving the current uncertain economic and political climate is all about rethinking what drives value. The winners in this next chapter will be the brands that:

• Get surgical with assortment planning. Core products anchor stability; collaborations create spikes of excitement.
• Leverage tools like bonded warehouses to manage cash flow and defer tariff payments until goods sell.
• Use pre-sale and pre-order models to align production with actual demand, turning inventory into an asset rather than a gamble.
• Invest in community over sheer reach, building loyal networks of customers who trust the brand’s taste and consistency.

The Bigger Picture

The most interesting part of this moment of economic pressure is the cultural recalibration it's triggering. For decades, American retail has rewarded excess. Now, both policy and consumer behavior are forcing us to reconsider what's "enough."

Look at other markets—Japan, Sweden, much of Europe—where retail has long operated with more restraint. Companies aren't chasing massive, globalized inventories, but rather curating smaller assortments and producing in seasonal, predictable cycles. Consumers there often only own what they love and use, and they stick to it. They're creatures of habit in the best way. Generationally, Gen Z may be more prepared for this shift than older cohorts. They already embrace a ‘less is more’ mentality with limited drops, resale platforms, and capsule wardrobes as the norm.

And this next phase may arrive faster than expected. The Washington Post flagged back-to-school and holiday shopping as the moments when tariffs will bite hardest—just as demand spikes. Brands and consumers alike will feel the squeeze in real time.

We're entering a market shaped less by endless choice and more by intentionality. Resilience is replacing range as the metric that matters. In this new reality, tariffs will accelerate the collapse of the "everything store" model faster than consumer psychology alone ever could.

But the opportunity lies with the mental shift that this isn't about deprivation, but about precision. The brands that understand this shift early, that lean into curation over chaos, will define the next era of retail. Just as Barry Schwartz warns us about the paralysis of infinite choice, we're about to discover the power of intentional limits.

The age of "everything, everywhere, all at once" retail may be winding down. The brands that thrive will be the ones who treat scarcity not as a constraint, but as a creative brief—and consumers may find they prefer the clarity of knowing exactly what they want, rather than drowning in options they never needed in the first place.